DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Sorry, America, it's looking like higher interest rates are going to stick around longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is expected to once again hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Some predictions also do not forecast any interest rate cuts until the second half of the year. AdvertisementIt's probably still not time for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates just yet. AdvertisementGiven that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, it's looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024. "Inflation has continued to run hot and there is no compelling need for the Fed to cut interest rates until they're comfortable with where inflation is headed."

Persons: Powell, —, It's, Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ The US economy started the year much slower than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter. While a slowdown was expected for the first quarter, the forecast was 2.5%. AdvertisementAmid US job growth above forecasts and accelerating inflation, the US economy in the first quarter of this year slowed more than expected. A news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis out Thursday showed US real gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 1.6%. "Looking ahead, we see the economy gently cooling as slower labor demand, easing wage growth, stubborn inflation, and tight credit conditions constrain private sector activity," Daco said.

Persons: —, Gregory Daco, EY, Daco Organizations: Service Locations: That's

☆ GDP report Thursday expected to show economy still growing at a solid pace
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, is expected to post a 2.4% annualized growth rate for the first quarter, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. If that estimate is accurate, it would mark a step down from the 3.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and just a touch less than last year's 2.5% full-year growth rate. "The U.S. economy is still very resilient, supported by a solid labor market that continues to support robust income growth and in turn, consumer spending activity," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said. "We are seeing a little bit of cooling in terms of the consumer spending momentum. But there isn't any form of retrenchment that would be alarming in terms of future income trends and in terms of future consumer spending trends."

Persons: Dow, Gregory Daco, Daco, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill Organizations: Wall, Gross, Atlanta Federal, Commerce, Commerce Department Locations: U.S, Atlanta

Elena Perova | Istock | Getty ImagesJust ahead of the holiday season, Walmart had encouraging news for inflation-weary shoppers: Prices on food and other staples were falling instead of rising. But the retail giant backpedaled this week, saying higher prices on many grocery items and household staples like paper goods have stuck. Food prices climbed 2.6%, fueled by a 5.1% jump in prices for food away from home, a category that includes restaurant meals and vending machine purchases. That gives their makers the ability to keep raising prices to mitigate higher costs, even as their volume drops. Even some of the biggest U.S. brands have signaled that consumers' tolerance of higher prices has worn thin.

Persons: Elena Perova, John David Rainey, Coke, James Quincey, Gregory Daco, airfares, Tyson, Fernando Fernandez, Arun Sundaram, Kraft Heinz, Chocolate, Hershey, Edward Jones, Brittany Quatrochi, Sundaram, Pringles, Kellanova, Heinz, Stefani Reynolds, Brad Thomas, CFRA's Sundaram, Thomas, Frederic J, Brown, Oscar Mayer, Greg Melich Organizations: Istock, Walmart, CNBC, Federal, Depot, Pew Research Center, Maine Foods, Unilever, Nestle, Bloomberg, Getty, Planters, Target, Kroger, AFP, U.S, PepsiCo, Frito, Evercore ISI Locations: Hershey , Pennsylvania, North America, Washington ,, Rosemead , California

☆ Americans have racked up a trillion dollars in credit card debt. That’s actually okay
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.

Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA

And while the economy usually comes out on top as the issue for most voters, there are doubts over whether even a good economy is enough for Joe Biden to win a second term. Certainly, the improving economy – and most importantly an inflation rate that is trending back to the Federal Reserve’s desired 2% annual target – should be an asset for Biden. “Obviously perceptions of Biden and Trump are largely baked in and have been for a long time” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “We’re playing at the margins at best.”For Democrats, running on a good economy will present its own challenges. The wing nuts have disproportionate power.”Ramamurti still believes that Biden should emphasize the economy, saying, “I’m of the view that good news is good news.

Persons: Joe Biden, ”, Jose Torres, ” Powell, “, Biden, Al Capone, Alejandro Mayorkas, Bharat Ramamurti, Trump, Lee Miringoff, David Walker, Walker, “ There’s, ” Ramamurti, Ramamurti, Gregory Daco, Pollsters, Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal, Biden, Fed, Interactive, Republicans, Democrats, CBS, Trump, GOP, Homeland, National Economic Council, Marist, ”, Marist Institute, Public, Biden Administration, Republican, Democratic Party, Democrat, Dow Jones, Moody's Locations: Pennsylvania

The U.S. economy ended 2023 with a bang, as growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter came in at 3.3%, easily dashing expectations on strong consumer spending and exports. Economists had predicted a gain of 2% for the quarter following the third quarter’s 4.9% increase, driven by strong consumer spending, rebuilding of inventories and a resilient labor market. Although 2023 outperformed, defying predictions of a recession even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a level not seen in four decades, most economists are forecasting growth slowing this year. The strong fourth quarter number is likely to cast doubt on whether the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as the market thinks. “Consumers will likely remain cautious with their spending as they confront ‘cost fatigue’ and less vibrant labor market conditions.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jerome Powell, “, ” Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, TruStage, “, Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, Ukraine

☆ Inflation is down sharply, but getting to exactly 2% will be tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, measured 2.6% annually in November. So, getting that number down to the Fed’s 2% target should happen in no time, right? That’s because much of the run-up in inflation came from pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and unusual spikes in demand. The reason is that as inflation cools more, the remaining components that work to keep inflation above the Fed’s target are increasingly “sticky,” meaning they’re the least responsive to changes in market conditions. And it’s so far, so good.”That said, though it’s not the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, Thursday’s CPI report showed that the road to 2% could come with more bumps.

Persons: ”, John Cochrane, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, That’s, Powell, Cochrane, “, ” Paul Donovan, ” Powell, I’d, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Hoover Institute, “, University of Chicago, CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York, EY

☆ US third-quarter growth revised higher; corporate profits rise strongly
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ The US economy grew by 5.2% in the third quarter, even faster than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year. Wednesday’s latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%. Fourth-quarter spending likely won’t be as piping hot, however. Fed officials pay close attention to various facets of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy, including growth.

Persons: ”, Gregory Daco, “, Christopher Waller, American Enterprise Institute . Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: DC CNN, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Adobe Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Employers, Atlanta Fed, Federal, ”, American Enterprise Institute ., Fed Locations: Washington, EY, Salt Lake City

☆ There could be a possible recession, says economist Christopher Rupkey
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere could be a possible recession, says economist Christopher RupkeyGregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the recent labor market data, whether a recession is looming, and more.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey Gregory Daco, Christopher Rupkey, Steve Liesman Locations: EY

☆ Here's when market experts think inflation will get back to normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.

Persons: J.P, David Kelly, —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business

☆ Wall Street will seek confirmation the Fed is done in next week's big inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Economists polled by FactSet expect U.S. inflation to have risen just 0.1% last month and 3.3% from the year-ago period. Cracks in consumer data Investors will also watch for the October retail sales data for insight into the consumer, who has thus far proven resilient even in the face of higher interest rates and inflation. Investors will also be watching for the October producer price index (PPI) data on Wednesday, as well as housing data on Friday. Monday Nov. 13 Earnings: Tyson Foods Tuesday Nov. 14 8:30 a.m. CPI (October) 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (October) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (October) Earnings: Home Depot , Charles Schwab Wednesday Nov. 15 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Amy Magnotta, It's, There's, Gregory Daco, he'll, Ned Davis Research's, Joe Kalish, NDR's Kalish, Jeff Klingelhofer, Magnotta, Tyson, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Ategenos, FactSet, Thornburg Investment Management, Walmart, CPI, PPI, Retail, Palo Alto Networks, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Manufacturing, . New York Federal Reserve, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Body, Housing Locations: . New, NAHB, . Kansas, Bath

Consumers continued to sour on the economic outlook in November while also growing more pessimistic about future inflation, according to the first estimate from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The index of consumer sentiment fell 5% to a reading of 60.4, down from 63.8 in October. “Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well.”“Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment,” Hsu added. Various surveys measuring the minds of consumers have found them to be worried about inflation and the economy in general. “Consumer sentiment continues to trend downward at a moderate pace as consumers attempt to juggle inflation and higher interest rates,” said Damian McIntyre, Portfolio manager and head of multi asset solutions at Federated Hermes.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, Joe Biden, Damian McIntyre, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Goldman Sachs Organizations: University of Michigan, “, Federated Hermes, Federal Reserve, Index, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Gaza, Ukraine, Kentucky, Ohio

☆ How High Interest Rates Sting Bakers, Farmers and Consumers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Lydia Depillis | More About Lydia Depillis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Yet the economy continued to burn hot, with job openings outstripping the supply of workers and consumers spending freely. Some categories driving inflation sank back quickly, like furniture and food, while others — like energy — have resurged. In September, the central bank held its rate steady, but signaled that the rate would stay high for longer than the market had anticipated. For start-ups, which proliferated over the last few years, the concern is about the survival or failure of their businesses. Most entrepreneurs use their savings and help from friends and family to start businesses; only about 10 percent rely on bank loans.

Persons: “ We’ve, ”, Gregory Daco, Luke Pardue

☆ After a robust third quarter, US economic growth will likely slow. That's good for the prospect of rate cuts next year.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-22 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The central bank also doesn’t have any incentive to restrict the economy through elevated interest rates if inflation is already under control. The US central bank has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to their highest level in 22 years. The US Commerce Department reports new home sales in September. The US Commerce Department reports third-quarter gross domestic product along with September figures on new durable-goods orders. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended October 21.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Gregory Daco, ” Diane Swonk, Donald Trump, Colin Kaepernick’s, Bud Light’s, Elliott Gotkine, ”, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, “, Satya Nadella, ” Sundar Pichai, , Sherwin, Williams, Clark, General, Hess, Rowe Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, The Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, KPMG, BlackRock, America, Nike, Yale School of Management, Microsoft, ” Disney, Sonnenfeld, Tottenham Hotspur, Whirlpool, Verizon, General Electric, Barclays, 3M, General Motors, Spotify, Quest Diagnostics, Mobile, Boeing, General Dynamics, Old Dominion, Hilton, Meta, IBM, US Commerce Department, Mastercard, Merck, Comcast, UPS, Myers Squibb, Northrop Grumman, Valero, The Hershey Company, Amazon, Intel, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, EY, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, London, Gaza, Kimberly, Haliburton, Old, Bristol, AbbVie

☆ Why Fed officials aren’t addressing the Israel-Hamas war the way they did with Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Emma Jones, a spokesperson for the Fed, declined to comment on why many Fed officials, who in the past moved swiftly to acknowledge the war in Ukraine, weren’t addressing the war in Israel. There are some Fed officials who are starting to talk about it, though — albeit only when asked questions. Fed officials see little immediate threat to the US economyAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was the first to speak about the war, at the American Bankers Association’s annual conference last Tuesday. That’s probably why more Fed officials were quicker to acknowledge the war in Ukraine, Dorn said. “I don’t think the Fed wants to look like they’re taking sides,” Dorn added — but said Fed officials could easily talk about it without looking partial.

Persons: Chris Waller, ” Waller, Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Emma Jones, James Dorn, “, ”, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Neel Kashkari didn’t, aren't, they're, Al Drago, Susan Collins, ” Collins, Patrick Harker, we’ve, Harker, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dorn, Dorn, There’s, Gregory Daco, Daco Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, ”, Dallas Fed, Fed, Cato Institute, CNN, Atlanta Fed, American Bankers, Minot State University, Minneapolis, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, ” Boston, Wellesley College, Philadelphia Fed, Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, JPMorgan, Rystad Energy Locations: New York, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Waller’s, North Dakota, Delaware, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, United States, That’s, Gaza, Hormuz, EY

☆ US retail sales rose in September for the sixth-straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, grew 0.7% in September from the prior month. Factoring in September’s 0.4% rise in consumer prices, inflation-adjusted retail sales were up 0.3% last month. From a year earlier, retail sales and food services spending were up 3.8% in September, the strongest annual gain since February. Spending grew across most categories last month, with sales at specialty stores advancing the most, by 3%. Excluding sales at gasoline stations, retail sales still advanced 0.7% last month.

Persons: ”, BIll Adams, ’, Adams, US Energy Information Administration “, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Brian Field, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Joe Biden, Jordan Organizations: DC CNN, Comerica Bank, headwinds, UAW, United Auto Workers, US Energy Information Administration, Hamas, University of, San Francisco Fed, “ Retail, CNN, Employers, Sensormatic Solutions, Services, OPEC Locations: Washington, Israel, Iran

The stock market got a boost from that drop in longer-term yields, but it also felt a drag from rising shorter-term yields. Yields were mixed after a report showed inflation at the wholesale level was stronger last month than economists expected. Still, with the U.S. government racking up big deficits that require more borrowing, and buyers in shorter supply, the pressure has been mostly upward on Treasury yields. In energy trading, a further pullback in crude oil prices is helping to take some heat off inflation and support Wall Street. Oil prices have given back much of their strong gains from earlier this week, triggered by fighting in Gaza.

Persons: Sydney's, Hang Seng, ” Anderson Alves, ActivTrades, Rubeela Farooqi, ”, Gregory Daco, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, Palestinian, Hamas, Nikkei, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Treasury, “ Fed, EY, Benchmark, New York Mercantile Exchange, Energy, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources Locations: Israel, Hong, Shanghai, U.S . Federal, Lebanon, Iran, U.S, Gaza

☆ Inflation held steady in September as housing and gas prices keep going up
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's the same as the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in August. Core CPI increased 4.1% from September 2022 to September this year. AdvertisementAdvertisementInflation is still elevated and held steady in September, based on Consumer Price Index or CPI data out Thursday. The year-over-year increase in this index had been falling, based on data before Thursday's data release. AdvertisementAdvertisementCore CPI index increased 0.3% from August to September.

Persons: —, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, Pollak, Price, Gregory Daco Organizations: Service, Consumer, Index, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, payrolls

☆ US wholesale inflation heated up last month amid higher gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —Wholesale price increases of US goods and services jumped higher for a third consecutive month, influenced by still-high energy prices, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. September’s overall increase was driven by a 0.9% gain in goods prices due to higher energy prices and food prices, BLS data shows. Gas prices hit new yearly highs in September, as oil prices pushed past $92 a barrel amid supply cuts and catastrophic flooding in Libya. The higher gas prices seen in August and September may filter through to some products and services but shouldn’t ultimately keep inflation higher in the months to come, said Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services’ senior economic adviser. However, the Israel and Hamas war in the Middle East does add volatility to energy prices, he said.

Persons: Price, ”, Gregory Daco, Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, shouldn’t, Stuart Hoffman, ” Hoffman Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, PPI, PNC Financial Services Locations: Minneapolis, August’s, Libya, Israel

☆ Housing market's sensitivity to rates kept the Fed from hiking further, says Peter Boockvar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHousing market's sensitivity to rates kept the Fed from hiking further, says Peter BoockvarGregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Advisory Group, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss when investors can expect a Fed pivot, economic data showing ongoing disinflation, and the housing markets' sensitivity to rate hikes.

Persons: Peter Boockvar Gregory Daco, Peter Boockvar, Steve Liesman Organizations: Bleakley Advisory

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

☆ A top economist explains why a US recession is still on the table
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is showing signs of resilience, including from the labor market and consumer spending. The labor market has remained robust, steady economic growth is still there, and consumers have yet to buckle. "I think there's still risks gradually accumulating in the economy," Kimbrough said. AdvertisementAdvertisementConsumer and labor market risks loomA number of factors pose as headwinds for consumers, in the chief economist's view. Gregory Daco, EY's chief economist, also recently warned that there are headwinds impacting consumers, forcing them to perhaps cut back on spending.

Persons: isn't, —, Jeremy Grantham, Jamie Dimon, Karin Kimbrough, LinkedIn's, it's, Kimbrough, they've, Gregory Daco, Daco Organizations: Service, Chicago Fed, BlackRock, Labor, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center, Microeconomic

☆ US consumer spending was weaker in the second quarter than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

However, consumer spending, America’s economic engine, was revised much lower, to a 0.8% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday. Spending in the second quarter grew at its weakest pace since the first quarter of 2022, when it was flat. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. The second quarter stretches from April through June, but the Commerce Department releases consumer spending figures on a monthly basis. In July, consumer spending jumped a robust 0.8%, the strongest monthly gain since January, as shoppers spent on concerts, films, toys and recreational equipment.

Persons: ”, Claire Li, Gregory Daco Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce, Commerce Department, Moody’s Investors, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Washington, EY

Search resuls for: "Gregory Daco"

25 mentions found